128. An analysis of GE13

Quick analysis of GE13 results

MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT

After GE 2013 with Najib as PM
BN - 133
PR - 89

After GE 2008 with Badawi as PM
BN - 140
PR - 82

Najib has therefore performed worse than Badawi, having lost 7 seats to PR (assuming its a fair and clean election).

Also Najib failed to regain the crucial 2/3 majority despite the rampant money politics and blatant vote buying. So expect a lot of political activities in the coming months unless Najib is edged out before then by his DPM.

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STATE ASSEMBLY (ADUN) MEMBERS

After GE 2013 with Najib as PM
BN - 268
PR - 217
(20 still not officially announced)

After GE 2008 with Badawi as PM
BN - 307
PR - 198

PAS has always had problems governing Kedah with the infighting and their petulant Menteri Besar, so the loss was more or less expected. Although PR lost Kedah to BN, overall PR got more state ADUN members, especially in Johor led by DAP.

The three states in which PR retain control now has more than a 2/3 majority. And PR won by a much better and bigger margin.

Two states are still contentious, ie

1. PERAK
BN - 31
PR - 28

2. TERENGGANU
BN - 17
PR - 15

In Perak & Terengganu, BN will have the right to form the state government but then BN will have to sacrifice two (2) state ADUNs to be the HOUSE SPEAKER and DEPUTY HOUSE SPEAKER. So it will potentially be a hung state Assembly with no clear majority. After the Speakers and Deputy Speakers are selected, the end scenario is

1. PERAK
BN - 29
PR - 28

2. TERENGGANU
BN - 15
PR - 15

This scenario partly explains why Mukhriz has been sworn in as Menteri Besar of Kedah on 6/5/2013, but the swearing in of the MBs for Perak and Terengganu has been delayed. No main stream media or BN dared to report on this potential loss of BN's grip on power. The end game is a battle between UMNO versus PAS, PKR and DAP.

So Anwar's fight for Putrajaya is not over and Pakatan still has a chance to wrest control the marginal state of Perak and Terengganu.

Equally significant is the complete slaying of Perkasa & to some extent, Gerakan.

MCA is left with 5 seats with two highly-dubious wins in Labis and Bentong. MIC is left with 4 seats.

The political landscape today is more promising for Pakatan than 2008. The Rakyat's anger is fanned by the public mobilization of foreigners as voters in marginal seats, and is further fueled by Najib's denial that foreigner phantom voters exist, despite the abundant photographic and video evidence in the social media.

Anwar will have a huge task to keep his coalition intact so no Pakatan MP and ADUN defects to BN while he attempts to wrest control of Perak and Terengganu. Because the GE13 results are so disastrous for Najib, BN has immediately launched the psychological war with Najib calling GE13 "a tsunami of Chinese". This is spin talk for "Malays must support UMNO to fight DAP".

THE BOTTOM LINE?

Pakatan has 10 reasons to be satisfied with GE13 results:

1. The 3 Pakatan states are maintained with 2/3 majority and with bigger winning margins.

2. DAP, PAS, PKR have denied BN again the prized 2/3 majority in Parliament,

3. The total rejection of PERKASA by Malay voters in Pasir Mas and Shah Alam.

4. MCA, MIC and Gerakan have been relegated to gross insignificance now more than ever,

5. The slim opportunity to wrest control of Perak and Terengganu if Anwar is given a chance to work his magic,

6. The glaringly obvious reduced BN parliamentary and state ADUN seats, despite the presence of phantom voters & Najib's vote-buying attempts in BR1M etc

7. The acceptance of DAP, PAS & PKR as a working coalition, and the loss of the Chinese phobia towards PAS and the Malay phobia towards DAP,

8. The defeat of key UMNO heavy weights, especially 2 Menteri Besar, Federal Cabinet Ministers and Nurul's successful defence of Lembah Pantai,

9. At the coming UMNO General Assembly, Najib will face the heat on the reduced seats and the exclusion of Wanita UMNO leaders as candidates.

10. Best of all, at the coming MCA General Assembly, Chua Soy Lek will likely be ousted by Ong Tee Keat for leading MCA into the worst electoral defeat ever.

Pakatan's fight continues with a giant rally on Wednesday 8/5/2013 at 9:00 pm at Kelana Jaya stadium. The attendance will give BN an indication of the Rakyat's wrath.