PAS won 7 more state seats possibly based on the appeal of the unfortunate fate of the Mongolian woman. what about Johore once the fortress of BN now dismantled because of Teoh Boon Hock from Johore and the extra hard work of LKS. Joshua
S'gor Pakatan rides the Khalid wave
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We’ll start by looking at some of the numbers, and then speculate as to what the results tell us about Khalid Ibrahim’s five years at the helm of the Selangor Pakatan Rakyat state government, especially vis-a-vis rural and semi-rural voters.
Of the four states governed by Pakatan Rakyat prior to the weekend, two saw a reduction in seats (Kedah and Kelantan), and two saw an increase in seats - Penang (an increase of one seat out of 40 total = 2.5 precent) and Selangor (an increase of eight seats, out of 56 total = 14.2 percent).
No BN state government increased their number of seats in this election except Negri Sembilan, where BN increased their number of seats by one.
This makes Selangor the only incumbent state government - from either BN or Pakatan - that saw a dramatic increase in state seats.
Parliament results
Before we analyse this remarkable achievement in depth, let’s take a look at some of the Parliamentary results.
The total number of seats for BN and Pakatan remained unchanged - 17 for Pakatan, five for BN.
There were some changes in seats however. PAS lost in Kuala Selangor (a great loss of a great MP in Dzulkefly Ahmad), but won in Sepang. PKR meanwhile, lost Hulu Selangor, but gained Pandan (both of which I believe can be attributed to PKR’s choice of candidate).
Of minor note is the geographical fact that BN now holds all the northern Parliamentary seats in Selangor (from P92 to P96), while Pakatan holds everything south of Kapar, Selayang, and Gombak.
State seats: Breaking new ground
The final tally for the Selangor state seats were: PKR - 14, PAS - 15, DAP - 15, BN - 12.
Kota Damansara was a controversial seat, as PAS members were seen to still be campaigning for their candidate to the end, even as the Pakatan Rakyat top leadership, including PAS, decided that the official Pakatan candidate was Dr Nasir Hashim, who ran under the PKR logo.
The Kota Damansara seat saw a five-way contest. BN won with 16,387 votes, while PKR and PAS polled 14,860 and 7,321 respectively. The total Pakatan votes would have clearly overwhelmed the BN votes, had they not been split. The same happened in Semenyih, between PKR and PSM.
Coming back to the bigger picture, the dramatic increase of eight state seats comes from PR winning 10 new constituencies (Sabak, Kuala Kubu Baru, Taman Templer, Dusun Tua, Seri Serdang, Paya Jaras, Sementa, Morib, Tanjung Sepat, and Sungai Pelek), while losing two old ones (Bukit Melawati and Kota Damansara).
PKR lost two seats (Bukit Melawati and Kota Damansara) while winning one new one (Sementa), DAP gained two seats (Kuala Kubu Baru and Sungai Pelek), while PAS made the most dramatic inroads, clinching the remaining seven new seats and almost doubling their seat count from eight to 15.
Khalid appeals to rural Malays
This dramatic increase in these PAS seats may indicate a very significant development. While Selangor PAS may be stronger than PAS in some other states, this alone is unlikely to account for the fact that they nearly doubled their state seats in Selangor.
This is because at the national level, their total number of state seats remained virtually unchanged from 83 in 2008 to 85 in 2013. This indicates that if not for Selangor, PAS would have less state seats than it did in 2008.
The newly-won state seats in Selangor are all Malay majority seats, almost half of which are relatively rural areas.
A victory in the state seats for these areas seems to indicate the success of Khalid’s state government in appealing to that extremely hard to reach demographic for Pakatan: the rural Malay heartland.
Note as well that in seats like Sabak (PAS) and Ijok (PKR, Khalid’s former seat), votes for the state seat went for Pakatan, while the larger parliamentary seat within which they were contained went to BN, indicating the possibility of some split voting, which in turns indicates different levels of confidence for Pakatan’s state versus national leaders.
Will Khalid remain as MB?
One possible conclusion that might thus be drawn from these developments is that while Pakatan has had extreme difficulty penetrating the rural Malay heartland throughout the nation, Khalid’s track record, policies and appeal may have gone further than any other Pakatan leader in helping to bridge that gap.
While having had to battle multiple fronts from within his own party (many elements of which seem to have failed to secure new seats or defend old ones), Khalid’s popularity among the general populace is well-recognised.
It would appear that the simple reason for this is Khalid’s commitment to simple, honest work, in place of incessant political manouevring.
The man may not be perfect, but his focus on doing his job right, and ensuring that the rakyat are given back all that is theirs seems to have struck a chord with voters throughout Selangor, even those in the demographic that Pakatan has had an immensely difficult time with.
Let us hope (or rather demand) that Umno-style internal politics within PKR do not result in Khalid’s removal as menteri besar.
After all, while there is much analysis yet to be done, the initial results seem to suggest that Selangor remains a beacon and example as to what a better Malaysia may one day look like.
NATHANIEL TAN works as a consultant to the Selangor state government, but hopes that facts and figures speak for themselves.
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