Pakatan leads in almost half of Johor targeted seats
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With
only six days to go before the 'judgment day' on May 5, it is believed
that Johor Pakatan Rakyat has set a solid foothold in almost half of its
11 targeted parliamentary constituencies in the southern state and is
moving aggressively in another five.
According to DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang (centre, in photo), Pakatan needs to secure another 10 seats from Johor, Sabah and Sarawak each to pave its way to Putrajaya.
The five seats are Gelang Patah, Bakri,Kluang, Kulai
Besides Bakri, which is the only parliamentary constituency won by the opposition in 2008, the other four constituencies share other several factors:
According to DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang (centre, in photo), Pakatan needs to secure another 10 seats from Johor, Sabah and Sarawak each to pave its way to Putrajaya.The five seats are Gelang Patah, Bakri,Kluang, Kulai
Besides Bakri, which is the only parliamentary constituency won by the opposition in 2008, the other four constituencies share other several factors:
- High percentage of Chinese voters;
- Large population of urban middle class;
- Unprecedented mammoth opposition rallies in the past two weeks;
- Contested by heavyweight leaders who brought with them formidable campaign machineries.
The formula is an open secret - that is to boost Chinese
support to over 75 percent and retain 25 to 30 percent of Malay support.
Should the current trend persists in the final week, MCA would be the biggest losers as it would lose three seats – Kulai, Bakri and Kluang - out of the seven seats contested, while DAP would be the biggest opposition party in Johor with four parliamentary seats followed by PKR with one.
With Chinese Johoreans showing unprecedented support towards the opposition in the past two weeks, not only DAP campaigners, but their PAS counterpart too are also confident they will secure more votes from the Chinese, as many have openly shown acceptance of the Islamic party.
Even Umno incumbent Pulai MP Nur Jazlan Mohamed (left) admitted that BN may face problems in maintaining its Chinese support.
“The strategy of Pakatan is to weaken MCA, that's why they have a very targeted strategy to send their big-name leaders to contest here in Johor and all of them contest in Chinese-majority areas.
“We (Johor) will remain as BN stronghold but maybe with some worries in the Chinese-majority constituencies,” he told KiniTV last Friday.
Even so, the ultimate battlefield in the final lap of this campaign is undoubtedly in wooing the Malay electorate.
The Malay voters in Johor are not homogeneous. Their political inclination largely depends on three factors – the urban and rural divide, the opposition's groundwork in the constituency, and age.
From the various Pakatan ceramah held in Malay areas, it was clear that those located at urban towns received better attendance compared to those in rural Malay villages, and the participants were mostly youths.
Most rural Malays met by Malaysiakini were comfortable with status quo and have little understanding about the opposition, especially DAP, while the urbanites and youths were more open to alternative information mainly due to the fast-growing Internet and social media.
Wooing the Malays
In some areas where the opposition has strong presence coupled with long-time service, such as the two state seats of Sungai Abong and Maharani held by PAS, the party managed to secure up to 40 percent of Malay votes, compared to the statewide average of 20 percent.
Such areas are not that many in southern Johor where Pakatan is aiming to build a bridgehead based on the brewing 'Chinese storm'.
However,
the anti-establishment momentum is quickly building up in urban Malay
areas as observed in last night's ceramah at Bandar Baru Uda.
Should the current trend persists in the final week, MCA would be the biggest losers as it would lose three seats – Kulai, Bakri and Kluang - out of the seven seats contested, while DAP would be the biggest opposition party in Johor with four parliamentary seats followed by PKR with one.
With Chinese Johoreans showing unprecedented support towards the opposition in the past two weeks, not only DAP campaigners, but their PAS counterpart too are also confident they will secure more votes from the Chinese, as many have openly shown acceptance of the Islamic party.
Even Umno incumbent Pulai MP Nur Jazlan Mohamed (left) admitted that BN may face problems in maintaining its Chinese support.“The strategy of Pakatan is to weaken MCA, that's why they have a very targeted strategy to send their big-name leaders to contest here in Johor and all of them contest in Chinese-majority areas.
“We (Johor) will remain as BN stronghold but maybe with some worries in the Chinese-majority constituencies,” he told KiniTV last Friday.
Even so, the ultimate battlefield in the final lap of this campaign is undoubtedly in wooing the Malay electorate.
The Malay voters in Johor are not homogeneous. Their political inclination largely depends on three factors – the urban and rural divide, the opposition's groundwork in the constituency, and age.
From the various Pakatan ceramah held in Malay areas, it was clear that those located at urban towns received better attendance compared to those in rural Malay villages, and the participants were mostly youths.
Most rural Malays met by Malaysiakini were comfortable with status quo and have little understanding about the opposition, especially DAP, while the urbanites and youths were more open to alternative information mainly due to the fast-growing Internet and social media.
Wooing the Malays
In some areas where the opposition has strong presence coupled with long-time service, such as the two state seats of Sungai Abong and Maharani held by PAS, the party managed to secure up to 40 percent of Malay votes, compared to the statewide average of 20 percent.
Such areas are not that many in southern Johor where Pakatan is aiming to build a bridgehead based on the brewing 'Chinese storm'.
However,
the anti-establishment momentum is quickly building up in urban Malay
areas as observed in last night's ceramah at Bandar Baru Uda.
A crowd of 1,00 animated Malays had attended to follow the speeches
of former Selangor menteri besar Muhammad Muhammad Taib, who now joined
PAS.
The modern residential area located in Johor Bahru is home to many middle-class Malays working in the city.
PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub told Malaysiakini last Friday that his party is confident they have secured 33 to 35 percent of Malay support, close to their target of 38 to 40 percent.
“We have seen the change. In the past we could not enter these traditional Malay villages and residential areas but now we can hold activities inside,” he said after being invited by a surau in Nusa Jaya to give a sermon.
He said the party is eyeing three parliamentary seats – Pulai, Ayer Hitam and Simpang Renggam.
Should the urban Malay electorate swing towards Pakatan, the coalition could bag another five seats - Pasir Gudang, Johor Bahru, Pulai, and Tebrau in the greater Johor Bahru area, andMuar in central Johor, making the total seats to 10.
PAS vice-president Salahuddin Ayub told Malaysiakini last Friday that his party is confident they have secured 33 to 35 percent of Malay support, close to their target of 38 to 40 percent.
“We have seen the change. In the past we could not enter these traditional Malay villages and residential areas but now we can hold activities inside,” he said after being invited by a surau in Nusa Jaya to give a sermon.
He said the party is eyeing three parliamentary seats – Pulai, Ayer Hitam and Simpang Renggam.
Should the urban Malay electorate swing towards Pakatan, the coalition could bag another five seats - Pasir Gudang, Johor Bahru, Pulai, and Tebrau in the greater Johor Bahru area, andMuar in central Johor, making the total seats to 10.
Although BN's Johor Bahru candidate Shahrir Samad (left)
is a well-known veteran, the individual candidate factor could be
overshadowed by national issues should urban voters decide to follow the
national trend.Muar makes it into the list as PAS has already built a strong foundation in the marginal seat which BN only retained with small majority of 4,661 and a vote split was observed in the 2008 general election.
In the case that significant rural Malays also accept Pakatan, another three seats would fall - Tanjong Piai, Batu Pahat andLabis, giving Pakatan 13 seats, exactly half of the 26 parliamentary seats in Johor.
Indian factor
Labis stands out from the other two constituencies as Indians make up 15 percent of the voter base.
Contested by an Indian candidate from DAP, ex-senator S Ramakrishnan ( below, standing in photo), a swing in the Indian votes coupled with strong Chinese support would win him the seat which was held by MCA's Chua Tee Yong with only a 4,094-vote majority in the last general polls.
From
the response of electorate towards candidates observed since the
nomination, there is still a large portion of Malay voters who have yet
to make up their mind.Hence political parties that can adopt the most effective approaches to engage and convince these fence-sitters would be the winners.
Perhaps in view of this, Pakatan has been using different tactics in areas of different ethnicity.
Daily mega ceramah featuring prominent Pakatan leaders or 'political celebrities' were a hit among Chinese Johoreans who even traveled far to watch their favourite leaders in Malay villages, crowding out the local Malay audience.
A combination of different approaches was used in Malay areas that blended both national and local issues as well as personal touch.
Besides walkabout, door-to-door visits and nightly small-group ceramah, candidates have been attending kenduri (Malay feast) and weddings during weekends where they can meet with many voters.
However, some campaigners have started to question the effectiveness of the small-group ceramah approach as it has failed to attract non-supporters.
“It does not make sense to do the same thing (small-group ceramah) repeatedly but hope to get different result.
“Instead they should visit thewarong (stalls) in Malay villages where residents gather and give short speech there,” a DAP campaigner in Tanjong Piai toldMalaysiakini.Whether Pakatan will use more innovative and effective approaches to penetrate Malay areas remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, the opposition coalition has also started efforts to call on outstation voters, especially those working in Singapore, to come home to voter, including buying newspaper advertisements (above).
Not only returning to cast their ballots, Pakatan has asked these young voters to convince their parents to vote against BN.
BN relying on tested methods
On the other hand, BN has been banking on its tested method of organising free meals, cultural performances and community activities through local organisations, as well as giving out financial aides to consolidate its supporters from being converted by Pakatan.
MCA
candidates also held dialogues with local Chinese associations to
convey their messages but such associations have lost their influence
within the Chinese community in cities, particularly among the youths.
Efforts were put in to emulate Pakatan mega rallies by holding ceramah but the response so far have been lukewarm.
Pasir Gudang MCA division deputy organising secretary Tan Tuan Ping told Chinese daily China Press that the time of a mega dinner slated for Tuesday will be capped at two hours and the maximum number of speakers is five, to avoid the embarrassing scene of attendants leaving before the programme ends.
Nevertheless, free meals and goodies did help BN to reach out to more fence-sitters.
With the final leg of the race at hand, many wonder whether BN will use its old tactic of throwing in more financial incentives and raise racial elements to guard its ground.
Umno has started todistribute leafletsaccusing
DAP and Gelang Patah candidate Lim of causing the May 13 incident while
MCA has been warning Chinese voters against hudud laws and Islamic
state through its daily advertisements in Chinese dailies.
With all the uncertainties and the high number of fence-sitters among Malay voters, it is still too early to determine whether the political tsunami will sweep Johor, just like what transpired in Selangor and Perak in 2008.
BN relying on tested methods
On the other hand, BN has been banking on its tested method of organising free meals, cultural performances and community activities through local organisations, as well as giving out financial aides to consolidate its supporters from being converted by Pakatan.
MCA
candidates also held dialogues with local Chinese associations to
convey their messages but such associations have lost their influence
within the Chinese community in cities, particularly among the youths.Efforts were put in to emulate Pakatan mega rallies by holding ceramah but the response so far have been lukewarm.
Pasir Gudang MCA division deputy organising secretary Tan Tuan Ping told Chinese daily China Press that the time of a mega dinner slated for Tuesday will be capped at two hours and the maximum number of speakers is five, to avoid the embarrassing scene of attendants leaving before the programme ends.
Nevertheless, free meals and goodies did help BN to reach out to more fence-sitters.
With the final leg of the race at hand, many wonder whether BN will use its old tactic of throwing in more financial incentives and raise racial elements to guard its ground.
Umno has started todistribute leafletsaccusing
DAP and Gelang Patah candidate Lim of causing the May 13 incident while
MCA has been warning Chinese voters against hudud laws and Islamic
state through its daily advertisements in Chinese dailies.With all the uncertainties and the high number of fence-sitters among Malay voters, it is still too early to determine whether the political tsunami will sweep Johor, just like what transpired in Selangor and Perak in 2008.
The Malaysiakini Johor team consists of Kuek Ser Kuang Keng, Lee Way Loon and Nigel Aw.
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